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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,815
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -57%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,815 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,862
1,815
Normalized
1,862
1,815
Prepared
1,862
1,815
Aligned
1,815
1,815
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,815
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,815 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
47
A: 47 / B: 0
Series A
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,815 raw → 1,815 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0992
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7845
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y