SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-16%
of values
In sync
54%
of periods
History
65
days · through 2024-01-01
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~6 days before Bank Reserves
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on values
95% CI
-39% → +8%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
65 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
65
807
Normalized
65
807
Prepared
65
807
Aligned
65
65
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
2.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
65
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
+6 days
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 6 days earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with Bank Reserves 6 days from now?"
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 days
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
742
A: 0 / B: 742
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
98.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-62.4050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
811.6979
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_fred-totresns_5y