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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
48
These move together
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-69% → -26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
48 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,501
65
Normalized
12,501
65
Prepared
601
65
Aligned
48
48
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
26.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
48
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
570
A: 553 / B: 17
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Sign agreement
83.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4725
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.9704
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y