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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
31
These move together
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
31 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
1,692
Normalized
65
1,692
Prepared
65
390
Aligned
31
31
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
31
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
393
A: 34 / B: 359
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Sign agreement
29.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2549
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6410
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y