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Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV) vs U-6 Unemployment Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-74%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
32
These move opposite each other about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~55% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-74%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-87% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
645
387
Normalized
645
387
Prepared
33
387
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
R²(i)
54.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
32
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-74%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-39%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-95%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
356
A: 1 / B: 355
Series A
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV)
FISV
Stock · 645 raw → 33 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3282
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0137
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-u6rate_stock-fisv_monthly_5y