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Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-78%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
32
These move opposite each other about 43% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~61% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~7 months before FISV
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on FISV.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-78%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-89% → -59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
645
796
Normalized
645
796
Prepared
33
796
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
R²(i)
60.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
32
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-7 months
Correlation at this shift
+93%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 7 months later. Reads: "Does Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 7 months ago?"
24 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-7 months
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
765
A: 1 / B: 764
Series A
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV)
FISV
Stock · 645 raw → 33 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
44.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.7278
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0377
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-fisv_monthly_5y