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Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV) vs Real Personal Consumption
Correlation
of % moves
-89%
In sync
of periods
30%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
31
These move opposite each other about 30% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~79% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
30.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-89%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-95% → -78%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
31 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
645
231
Normalized
645
231
Prepared
33
231
Aligned
31
31
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
78.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
31
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-89%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
30 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-89%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-96%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
202
A: 2 / B: 200
Series A
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock (FISV)
FISV
Stock · 645 raw → 33 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0921
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcec96_stock-fisv_monthly_5y