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Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
499
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+20% → +37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
2,514
Normalized
730
2,514
Prepared
730
2,514
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
499
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
498 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
87 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
85 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,246
A: 231 / B: 2015
Series A
Filecoin (FIL)
FIL
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0461
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-fil_fred-sp500_daily_5y