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Filecoin (FIL) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
+20%
In sync
of periods
26%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 26% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~8 months before FIL
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on FIL.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
26.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-23% → +57%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
242
Normalized
730
242
Prepared
25
242
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+40% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Filecoin (FIL) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 8 months ago?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-61%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
219
A: 1 / B: 218
Series A
Filecoin (FIL)
FIL
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0014
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-fil_fred-ces0500000003_monthly_5y