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Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
-49%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
60
These move opposite each other about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-66% → -27%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,360
Normalized
1,255
1,360
Prepared
61
1,360
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-46%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,301
A: 1 / B: 1300
Series A
FICO
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0689
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0048
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-fico_monthly_5y