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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
811
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -41%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
811 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
866
811
Normalized
866
811
Prepared
866
811
Aligned
811
811
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
22%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
811
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
811 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-27%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
55
A: 55 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-147.9561
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1363.5782
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-totresns_monthly_5y