Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+46%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
282
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~15 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
5,881
Normalized
864
5,881
Prepared
864
283
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
21%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 15 months ago?"
267 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+81%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
583
A: 582 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1359
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7194
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y