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Correlation
of values
+46%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~15 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on values
95% CI
+36% → +54%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
863
5,862
Normalized
863
5,862
Prepared
863
282
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
20.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 15 months ago?"
266 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+83%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
583
A: 582 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 863 raw → 863 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1356
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7194
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y