SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+62%
of values
In sync
57%
of periods
History
120
months · through 2026-04
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~38% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before S&P 500
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on S&P 500.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+62%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +72%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
2,515
Normalized
862
2,515
Prepared
862
121
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
Explore
R²(i)
38.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+74%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
S&P 500 shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with S&P 500 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+96%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
74 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
743
A: 742 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
442.8165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2914.7818
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-sp500_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.