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Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
536
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~86% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+91% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
536 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
866
536
Normalized
866
536
Prepared
866
536
Aligned
536
536
Invalid removed
R²(i)
86%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
536
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
536 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-50%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
330
A: 330 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 866 raw → 866 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5248
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3364
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y