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Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
533
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~86% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+91% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
533 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
863
533
Normalized
863
533
Prepared
863
533
Aligned
533
533
Invalid removed
R²(i)
85.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
533
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
533 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-53%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+42%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
330
A: 330 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 863 raw → 863 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5248
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.3376
Linear regression intercept.
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