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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
666
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~42% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
666 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
2,895
Normalized
864
2,895
Prepared
864
666
Aligned
666
666
Invalid removed
42%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
666
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
666 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+80%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+78%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
198
A: 198 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,895 raw → 666 prepared
Sign agreement
29.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1682
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8147
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-nfci_monthly_5y