Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+100%
In sync
of periods
94%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 94% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~100% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
94%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+100%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
1,806
Normalized
864
1,806
Prepared
864
61
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
100%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+100%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
60 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+100%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+100%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+100%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+99%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
805
A: 804 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0599
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_fred-iorb_monthly_5y