Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+58%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
28
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~33% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~16 months before FBTC
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on FBTC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+25% → +78%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
28 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
593
1,048
Normalized
593
1,048
Prepared
29
1,048
Aligned
28
28
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
33.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
28
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -17 to 17 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 16 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,021
A: 1 / B: 1020
Series A
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)
FBTC
Stock · 593 raw → 29 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0030
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-fbtc_monthly_5y