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Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) vs NASDAQ Composite
Correlation
of % moves
+43%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
592
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+36% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
592 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
593
13,941
Normalized
593
13,941
Prepared
593
13,941
Aligned
592
592
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
592
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
591 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
70 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13,350
A: 1 / B: 13349
Series A
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)
FBTC
Stock · 593 raw → 593 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,941 raw → 13,941 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1800
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-nasdaqcom_stock-fbtc_daily_5y