Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) vs Dow Jones Industrial Average
Correlation
of % moves
+36%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
592
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+29% → +43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
592 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
593
2,514
Normalized
593
2,514
Prepared
593
2,514
Aligned
592
592
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
592
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
591 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+22%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
86 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,923
A: 1 / B: 1922
Series A
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)
FBTC
Stock · 593 raw → 593 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1027
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-djia_stock-fbtc_daily_5y