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Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) vs US Core CPI
Correlation
of % moves
+38%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
27
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US Core CPI moves ~9 months before FBTC
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on FBTC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-2% → +67%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
27 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
593
831
Normalized
593
831
Prepared
29
831
Aligned
27
27
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
27
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+42% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Core CPI shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) today line up with US Core CPI 9 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+16%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
806
A: 2 / B: 804
Series A
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC)
FBTC
Stock · 593 raw → 29 prepared
Series B
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0029
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0024
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-fbtc_monthly_5y