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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+14%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
259
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+14%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
3,104
Normalized
1,254
3,104
Prepared
261
3,104
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
2%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
258
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+14%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+14%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+14%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,847
A: 2 / B: 2845
Series A
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)
EXPD
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 3,104 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
45
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2483
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-expd_weekly_5y