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Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
88%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
12
These move in the same direction about 88% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
87.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
+10% → +89%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
13
Normalized
940
13
Prepared
940
13
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
40.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -1 to 1 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+64%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
929
A: 928 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
480000.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1988000.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-unrate_monthly_5y