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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
13
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-81% → +10%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
675
13
Normalized
675
13
Prepared
675
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
662
A: 662 / B: 0
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 675 raw → 675 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8287.2682
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4536564.7633
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y