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Correlation
of values
+52%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
12
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~27% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~1 month before Existing Home Sales
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on Existing Home Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+52%
Based on values
95% CI
-8% → +84%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
13
388
Normalized
13
388
Prepared
13
388
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
26.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -1 to 1 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
+76%
+24% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Existing Home Sales today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 1 month ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-84%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
377
A: 1 / B: 376
Series A
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.4535
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y