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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~3 months before Existing Home Sales
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Existing Home Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → +17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
13
Normalized
5,862
13
Prepared
282
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+3 months
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 3 months earlier. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Existing Home Sales 3 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+3 months
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-91%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
269
A: 269 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-357779.6167
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4926768.4406
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y