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Correlation
of values
+28%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
13
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~2 months before Existing Home Sales
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on Existing Home Sales.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,696
13
Normalized
1,696
13
Prepared
391
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+35%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Existing Home Sales 2 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
378
A: 378 / B: 0
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 391 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
0.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
149134.9031
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4160710.9659
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y