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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
12
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~1 month before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
12 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
798
13
Normalized
798
13
Prepared
798
13
Aligned
12
12
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -1 to 1 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
+58%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator today line up with Existing Home Sales 1 month ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
787
A: 786 / B: 1
Series A
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
269678.4922
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4013938.4701
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-sahmrealtime_monthly_5y