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Correlation
of values
+63%
In sync
of periods
82%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
13
These move in the same direction about 82% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~39% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~2 months before Building Permits
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on Building Permits.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
82%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+63%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
797
13
Normalized
797
13
Prepared
797
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
39%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+84%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Existing Home Sales 2 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+63%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
784
A: 784 / B: 0
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1000.0845
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2657649.2837
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-permit_monthly_5y