Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-50%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~2 months before 30Y Mortgage Rate
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on values
95% CI
-82% → +7%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,880
13
Normalized
2,880
13
Prepared
663
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
-58%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does 30Y Mortgage Rate today line up with Existing Home Sales 2 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 650 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,880 raw → 663 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-133444.7050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4919529.5298
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-mortgage30us_monthly_5y