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Correlation
of values
-20%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
13
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Existing Home Sales moves ~3 months before Initial Jobless Claims
Watch Existing Home Sales for an early read on Initial Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,104
13
Normalized
3,104
13
Prepared
714
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
-3 months
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+47% stronger than no-shift baseline
Existing Home Sales shifted 3 months later. Reads: "Does Initial Jobless Claims today line up with Existing Home Sales 3 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-3 months
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
701
A: 701 / B: 0
Series A
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 714 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.5271
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4415142.4604
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-icsa_monthly_5y