Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-34%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
13
These move in the same direction about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on values
95% CI
-75% → +26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
13
Normalized
811
13
Prepared
811
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
798
A: 798 / B: 0
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-284.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4474175.3707
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_fred-houst_monthly_5y