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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
406
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+17% → +35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
406 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
411
5,851
Normalized
411
5,851
Prepared
411
5,851
Aligned
406
406
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
406
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+26%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
405 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
52 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,450
A: 5 / B: 5445
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
34
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1651
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-t5yie_stock-exe_daily_5y