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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs 10Y Breakeven Inflation
Correlation
of % moves
+24%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
480
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+16% → +33%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
480 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
484
5,925
Normalized
484
5,925
Prepared
484
5,925
Aligned
480
480
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
479
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+24%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
479 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+24%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+42%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,449
A: 4 / B: 5445
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 484 raw → 484 prepared
Series B
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,925 raw → 5,925 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1182
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-t10yie_stock-exe_daily_5y