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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+32%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
20
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~1 month before EXE
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on EXE.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
20 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
442
798
Normalized
442
798
Prepared
22
798
Aligned
20
20
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+39% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 1 month ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-23%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
780
A: 2 / B: 778
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 442 raw → 22 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 798 raw → 798 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.4268
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.1266
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-exe_monthly_5y