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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
+49%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
18
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~1 month before EXE
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on EXE.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+1% → +79%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
796
Normalized
411
796
Prepared
20
796
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
+66%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 1 month ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-23%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
780
A: 2 / B: 778
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.2438
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0888
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-exe_monthly_5y