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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Core PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
18
These move opposite each other about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
EXE moves ~6 months before Core PCE Price Index
Watch EXE for an early read on Core PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-72% → +15%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
807
Normalized
411
807
Prepared
20
807
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
-73%
+37% stronger than no-shift baseline
Core PCE Price Index shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Core PCE Price Index 6 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+51%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
791
A: 2 / B: 789
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0059
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0026
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_stock-exe_monthly_5y