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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Real Personal Consumption
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
18
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real Personal Consumption moves ~4 months before EXE
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on EXE.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-66% → +24%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
231
Normalized
411
231
Prepared
20
231
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Personal Consumption shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Real Personal Consumption 4 months ago?"
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-82%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
215
A: 2 / B: 213
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0143
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0021
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcec96_stock-exe_monthly_5y