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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
86
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+8% → +47%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
86 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
411
2,878
Normalized
411
2,878
Prepared
86
2,878
Aligned
86
86
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
86
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
85 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-35%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,792
A: 0 / B: 2792
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 86 prepared
Series B
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,878 raw → 2,878 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0918
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage30us_stock-exe_weekly_5y