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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
86
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+10% → +49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
86 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
411
1,813
Normalized
411
1,813
Prepared
86
1,813
Aligned
86
86
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
86
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
85 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-15%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,727
A: 0 / B: 1727
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 86 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,813 raw → 1,813 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1287
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0010
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-exe_weekly_5y