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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs 15Y Mortgage Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-35
100
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+9% → +45%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
100 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
483
1,827
Normalized
483
1,827
Prepared
101
1,827
Aligned
100
100
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
99
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
99 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,728
A: 1 / B: 1727
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 483 raw → 101 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,827 raw → 1,827 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1148
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-exe_weekly_5y