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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-53%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
21
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~28% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Fed Funds Rate moves ~10 months before EXE
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on EXE.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-53%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
21 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
442
864
Normalized
442
864
Prepared
22
864
Aligned
21
21
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
28%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 10 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
844
A: 1 / B: 843
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 442 raw → 22 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1550
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0140
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-exe_monthly_5y