Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-50%
In sync
of periods
25%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
19
These move opposite each other about 25% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
EXE moves ~4 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch EXE for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-50%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-78% → -4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
862
Normalized
411
862
Prepared
20
862
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
24.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 4 months from now?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
844
A: 1 / B: 843
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1504
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0145
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-exe_monthly_5y