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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Real Disposable Income
Correlation
of % moves
-42%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
18
These move opposite each other about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real Disposable Income moves ~2 months before EXE
Watch Real Disposable Income for an early read on EXE.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-75% → +7%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
807
Normalized
411
807
Prepared
20
807
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
18.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+72%
+30% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Disposable Income shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Real Disposable Income 2 months ago?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-45%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-84%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
791
A: 2 / B: 789
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0265
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dspic96_stock-exe_monthly_5y