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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Labor Force Participation
Correlation
of % moves
+32%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
22
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Labor Force Participation moves ~5 months before EXE
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on EXE.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-14% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
484
943
Normalized
484
943
Prepared
24
943
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -5 to 5 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Labor Force Participation shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Labor Force Participation 5 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-84%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
923
A: 2 / B: 921
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 484 raw → 24 prepared
Series B
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0125
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_stock-exe_monthly_5y