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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
19
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
EXE moves ~8 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch EXE for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-21% → +66%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
411
242
Normalized
411
242
Prepared
20
242
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
+35%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 8 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
224
A: 1 / B: 223
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 411 raw → 20 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0058
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_stock-exe_monthly_5y