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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
+25%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
22
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
EXE moves ~9 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch EXE for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-20% → +62%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
22 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
483
245
Normalized
483
245
Prepared
24
245
Aligned
22
22
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
21
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
+35%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 9 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+61%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
225
A: 2 / B: 223
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 483 raw → 24 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 245 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0053
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0028
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_stock-exe_monthly_5y