Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Continued Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
+18%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
99
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
EXE moves ~4 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch EXE for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-2% → +36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
99 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
485
3,112
Normalized
485
3,112
Prepared
102
3,112
Aligned
99
99
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+4 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 4 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 4 weeks from now?"
94 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 weeks
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+30%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
47 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,016
A: 3 / B: 3013
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 485 raw → 102 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0656
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_stock-exe_weekly_5y