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Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
21
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~10 months before EXE
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on EXE.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
21 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
442
1,290
Normalized
442
1,290
Prepared
22
1,290
Aligned
21
21
Invalid removed
20%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -10 to 10 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
+78%
+33% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 10 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
+78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,270
A: 1 / B: 1269
Series A
Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock (EXE)
EXE
Stock · 442 raw → 22 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1555
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0051
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-exe_monthly_5y