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Exelon Corp. (EXC) vs Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Correlation
of % moves
-35%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~8 months before EXC
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on EXC.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-70% → +14%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
269
Normalized
1,255
269
Prepared
61
269
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Velocity of M2 Money Stock shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Exelon Corp. (EXC) today line up with Velocity of M2 Money Stock 8 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-45%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
292
A: 42 / B: 250
Series A
EXC
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0381
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0112
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-m2v_stock-exc_monthly_5y