SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-59%
of % moves
In sync
34%
of periods
History
60
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
EXC moves ~16 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch EXC for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-73% → -39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,288
Normalized
1,255
1,288
Prepared
61
1,288
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
34.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-72%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Exelon Corp. (EXC) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 16 months from now?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+48%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+49%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,229
A: 1 / B: 1228
Series A
EXC
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1157
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.5390
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-aaa_stock-exc_5y