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Correlation
of % moves
+39%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-03-20
1,198
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+35% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,198 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,198
2,513
Normalized
1,198
2,513
Prepared
1,198
2,513
Aligned
1,198
1,198
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,198
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,197 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+29%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,315
A: 0 / B: 1315
Series A
EXAS
Stock · 1,198 raw → 1,198 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,513 raw → 2,513 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1242
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sp500_stock-exas_daily_5y