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Correlation
of % moves
+47%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
498
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+40% → +54%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
498 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
2,514
Normalized
730
2,514
Prepared
730
2,514
Aligned
498
498
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
498
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
497 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
74 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,248
A: 232 / B: 2016
Series A
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-eth_fred-sp500_daily_5y