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Ethereum (ETH) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+27%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
23
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ETH moves ~12 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch ETH for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-17% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
707
Normalized
730
707
Prepared
25
707
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-78%
+51% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Ethereum (ETH) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 12 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
686
A: 2 / B: 684
Series A
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5990
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0077
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: crypto-eth_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y