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Ethereum (ETH) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
+25%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
23
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
ETH moves ~10 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch ETH for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
708
Normalized
730
708
Prepared
25
708
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
6%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+31% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does Ethereum (ETH) today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 10 months from now?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+68%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
687
A: 2 / B: 685
Series A
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0542
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0122
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-eth_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y