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Ethereum (ETH) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~6 months before ETH
Watch Building Permits for an early read on ETH.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-62% → +15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
796
Normalized
730
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-6 months
Correlation at this shift
+44%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 6 months later. Reads: "Does Ethereum (ETH) today line up with Building Permits 6 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 months
+44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-32%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-54%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
773
A: 1 / B: 772
Series A
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0716
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: crypto-eth_fred-permit_monthly_5y